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G7 Idea of Capping Russian Oil Price Will Not Work for Lack of Authority on Market, Prof. Says_我的网站

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A | The G7 countries held a three-day summit from Sunday to Tuesday in the Bavarian Schloss Elmau. Apart from the member states, five countries — South Africa, Senegal, Indonesia, India and Argentina — were invited as guests. The G7 leaders issued a communique, saying the countries will consider introducing new restrictions on the transportation of Russian oil if Moscow does not agree to reduce oil prices.,"The oil market is a world market of 100 million barrels/day and this idea of capping oil prices for Russian crude would never work. It was not even attempted to cap oil prices in the 1970s at the time of the first oil shock," Furfari said, adding that OPEC is the only "authority" that could be able to influence prices of crude.,The expert went on to say that most of the oil-producing countries are already at their production ceiling anyway and they could not increase it to please the West. Even if European countries and the United States "ask nicely" OPEC to increase production to avoid an increase in oil prices it will not work as "OPEC+ remains deaf to the requests of the US and the Europeans.",US Fears Hike in Oil Prices if EU and UK Ban Insuring Tankers With Russian Oil, Reports Suggest16 June, 12:09 GMT,"The OPEC+ has some influence on the cost of crude oil on the market thanks to their quotas, but they will not come to an agreement with the G7 that would last very long if ever some members did reach such a limited agreement. Do you see Iran or Venezuela helping the US against Russia? Even the Emirates would refuse: they produce at their maximum already," Furfari explained.,He noted that while US President Joe Biden does not want to make Saudi Arabia a so-called "pariah state" anymore, the Saudis will not forget his election campaign pledge to treat them just so.,During the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron was caught on tape telling Biden that neither the United Arab Emirates nor Saudi Arabia could pump more oil to the global market to offset the shortfall in Russian exports.。　　旅游酒店板块8月25日早盘表现强势，凯撒旅业、华天酒店涨停；君亭酒店、西藏旅游、三峡旅游等跟涨。　　中秋国庆假期临近　　市场人士表示，虽然暑期已接近尾声，但受“请3休13”超长拼假带动，2026年中秋国庆“黄金周”的出行预订提前启动。　　同程旅行数据显示，截至8月24日，平台上“中秋”“国庆”等关键词的月搜索热度环比增长116%，中秋国庆旅行产品提前30天以上的预订热度较去年同期涨超20%，假期出游意愿明显前置。

B | 　　航旅纵横大数据显示，截至8月11日，出行日期为9月25日至10月7日的国内航线机票预订量已超171万张，同比增长约7%；出入境航线机票预订量超128万张，同比增长约11%。

C | 　　同程研究院表示，在“请3休13”超长拼假模式的带动下，“黄金周”的旅游产品预订周期较往年明显拉长，用户提前规划、提前下单的意愿持续增强。长线游、县域游热度同步升温，反映出游客在目的地选择上更加注重沉浸感与差异化体验。随着假期临近，相关产品预订热度有望继续攀升，将为“黄金周”的旅游市场注入强劲增长动力。　　政策等多重利好支撑　　此外，旅游酒店板块的做强，还受到政策利好和企业业绩支撑的带动。政策上，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局近日联合印发《关于进一步做好财政金融协同促内需政策有关工作的通知》，将单人在同家银行累计年贴息上限提至5000元，贴息范围扩展至“信用卡专项分期、消费分期、预借现金分期等新发生信用卡各类分期业务”。　　此前发布的《旅游强国建设“十五五”规划》提出，到2030年，旅游业高质量发展取得明显成效，现代旅游业体系更加完善，旅游强国建设取得显著进展；国内居民出游达到83亿人次，国内出游总花费达到7.7万亿元，入境旅游达到1.9亿人次、总花费超过1500亿美元。

D | 　　从已披露的2026年中报来看，旅游酒店板块的业绩改善明显。

E | 丽江股份、西藏旅游、三峡旅游上半年业绩明显增长，张家界、长白山、曲江文旅业绩明显扭亏。

F | 免税龙头中国中免上半年实现归母净利润31.06亿元，同比增长19.49%。　　还有就是，当前A股正呈现高位科技板块回调，而低位防御板块走强的特征。8月25日，通信、电子等科技成长板块继续偏弱，受隔夜美股英伟达连续下跌、存储与光通信板块明显走低，算力硬件延续调整。　　2026年业绩预测同比　　从机构预测的2026年业绩同比来看，旅游酒店部分个股业绩也有望高增长。众信旅游机构预测2026年业绩同比增长666.43%。三峡旅游预计业绩同比增长163.4%。君亭酒店、金马游乐也预计2026业绩同比翻倍。　　从股价表现来看，近一月金马游乐、岭南控股涨超20%，众信旅游、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、西域旅游、同庆楼、九华旅游涨超10%。　　长城证券研报指出，国内旅游需求持续旺盛，2025年国内居民出游人次达65.22亿人次，同比增长16.2%；同时免签政策推动入境游回暖，2025年入境游客达1.54亿人次，同比增长17.1%，内外需共振下行业基本面持续向好。　　西南证券研报指出，文旅行业底层竞争逻辑正加速转变，政策重心由规模恢复转向场景迭代与沉浸式业态培育，游客诉求从浅层观光显著转向情绪深度体验，2025年以情感体验为首要目标的游客占比已达68%，行业已进入“复合场景竞争”阶段，供给端聚焦智慧文旅与沉浸式内容升级，需求端与产业链协同深化，未来竞争焦点将集中于运营效率与全链条协同能力的提升。（文章来源：东方财富研究中心）。